An article by Noor Huda Ismail and Carl Ungerer, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 16 Jly 2009
This short paper, based on several recent interviews conducted with former JI members in Indonesia, highlights some of the shifting patterns of leadership behaviour and patronage among sections of the organisation.
It argues that two recent developments—the current leadership tensions and the release from prison of former JI members—at least raise the possibility that splinter factions might now seek to re-energise the movement through violent attacks. Although that possibility remains low, and further work is needed to understand the thinking and motivations of JI members as they transition out of the prison system, there is evidence that some of these individuals are gravitating towards hardline groups who continue to advocate al-Qaeda-style attacks against Western targets.
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